Ethereum price prediction: Will $2,200 support hold as ETH drops after KelpDAO breach?

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Ethereum slides 1.60% today to $2,315.91

Highlights

A security breach and depegging at KelpDAO led Aave to freeze rsETH reserves, putting $71 million at risk amid ongoing recovery efforts.
Nearly $12 billion has flowed into US Ethereum ETFs, underscoring strong institutional demand despite some outflows from Grayscale’s original trust.
Technicals signal mixed momentum, with ETH likely to trade sideways between $2,200 and $2,390 and bearish risk prevailing if $2,200 support fails.

Robust ETF inflows offset by security risks and technical headwinds

A depegging event involving the liquid restaking token rsETH followed a security breach at KelpDAO, resulting in Aave freezing reserves, with $71 million in funds at risk as recovery efforts continue. Significant net inflows were reported into U.S. Ethereum exchange-traded funds, driven by purchases in BlackRock’s ETHA, Fidelity's FETH, and Grayscale’s Mini Ethereum funds, though Grayscale’s original Ethereum Trust recorded outflows. Institutional interest remains highlighted by nearly $12 billion invested into Ethereum ETFs and continued dominance in total value locked and blockchain security, alongside the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade, which is expected to reduce gas fees and enable parallel transaction processing, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed oscillator signals amid support boundaries and low volatility

ETH trades above its SMA-20 at $2,270.01 and SMA-50 at $2,161.40, while remaining below the SMA-200 at $2,813.53. The Ichimoku Kijun support is noted at $2,201.86. MACD on the daily chart remains in strong buy territory; RSI stands at 55.56. ADX is neutral, while Stoch RSI at 23.08 and BBP at 70.84 indicate emerging overbought conditions. CCI signals a modest buy, the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, and daily action sees ETH near today’s low in a narrow, low-volatility range with steady pressure and mixed oscillator signals highlighting near-term uncertainty.

Low breakout odds as range-bound trading persists

In the next five trading days, ETH is likely to fluctuate within a typical volatility band of $2,200 to $2,390. The probability of a price increase remains low (less than 20%), with a sideways scenario expected near current price levels. A move above $2,390 would point toward a bullish scenario, while a drop below $2,200 could trigger a bearish outcome.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees ETH holding firm above key short- and medium-term supports despite short-term selling pressure. He believes strong institutional inflows and continued ETF interest reflect high confidence in Ethereum’s fundamentals, even as technical signals remain mixed and a recent security event adds caution to the outlook. The analyst notes the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade may further boost sentiment in the mid-term. "Momentum is gradually improving and, while consolidation dominates now, I expect a constructive shift if ETH can reclaim $2,390," Karapetjanc says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Ethereum was likely to remain in a consolidation phase amid persistent external risks and evolving institutional participation. With current inflows into U.S. Ethereum ETFs and heightened security concerns adding new cross-currents, close attention should be paid to potential volatility around the $2,200 support in response to shifts in either regulatory or technical sentiment.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.