Bitcoin price prediction: Can $64,046 support hold? BTC trades flat

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Bitcoin trades flat today at $64,239

Highlights

US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $6.35 billion in outflows over 30 days, signaling significant capital withdrawal and weakening market liquidity.
Institutional participation and supply absorption declined amidst continued dominance by BlackRock's IBIT, which now controls 61% of US ETF Bitcoin assets.
Technical indicators are mixed, with short-term bullish momentum in a $63,184–$65,294 range but long-term bearish pressure and high market indecision.

ETF outflows weigh on liquidity as institutional demand wanes

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $6.35 billion in outflows over the past 30 days, reflecting a substantial withdrawal of capital and dampening liquidity in the Bitcoin market, according to Captainaltcoin. This period saw institutional demand for Bitcoin decrease, further reducing major fund participation and supply absorption capacity. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has maintained a dominant 61% share of the US spot Bitcoin ETF market with $47.95 billion in assets under management, based on Pluang data, though ETF flows have continued to pressure underlying sentiment.

Short-term technical signals diverge amid mixed momentum readings

Technical indicators show that BTC is positioned above its SMA-20 and SMA-50 on the H1 chart, while remaining below the SMA-200 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun support is identified at $64,046. On the momentum side, MACD is at a Strong Sell reading, whereas the Awesome Oscillator points to Strong Buy conditions. The Average Directional Index is Neutral, signaling unclear trend strength. RSI also points to a Sell near the midpoint, while both Stoch RSI and CCI remain Neutral, indicating a lack of overextended moves. BBP indicates Overbought conditions, signifying ongoing buyer presence despite mixed momentum signals.

Sideways bias prevails as breakout risks define near-term action

In the short term, BTC is expected to consolidate within the $63,184 to $65,294 price range over the next two to three trading days, reflecting typical volatility for the current environment. The up-move probability is estimated at 67%, while downward moves are less likely at 33%. The baseline scenario is sideways consolidation, with a bullish scenario triggered on a breakout above the upper band and a bearish scenario following any drop below the identified support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the large outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs illustrate shifting institutional sentiment and a temporary retreat in demand. He sees that Bitcoin’s technical and liquidity profile remains constructive despite mixed momentum signals and ETF-driven pressure. The analyst expects price action to consolidate above key supports, with bullish probabilities prevailing in the near term. 'Given sustained institutional presence and supportive macro conditions, I remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s recovery potential above $64,000.'

Earlier, analysts noted that speculation surrounding Bitcoin’s origins is fueled by the enduring mystery of Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity, with unconventional theories persisting in the absence of definitive answers. In the current market context, traders should closely monitor consolidation behavior within the $63,184 to $65,294 range, as a breakout beyond these levels may provide crucial directional signals.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.