Bitcoin holds steady after increased US inflation dampens investor appetite

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Bitcoin drops 0.52% to $63,968 today

Highlights

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record net outflows of $6.4 billion in 30 days, reflecting waning institutional appetite.
Investor risk aversion, spurred by higher US inflation and US-Iran tensions, has further pressured Bitcoin demand and liquidity.
Technicals indicate mixed momentum with sideways price action likely in the $60,741–$66,079 range over the next few days.

Institutional pullback deepens as risk-off sentiment drives ETF outflows

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs registered a record net outflow of $6.4 billion over the past 30 days, reflecting sustained investor withdrawal and shrinking institutional demand, according to Cryptobreaking. This wave of outflows has been attributed to the emergence of a risk-off environment, driven by increased US inflation and heightened geopolitical risks related to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. Reduced liquidity from ETF redemptions has contributed to a softer backdrop for demand-sensitive flows into Bitcoin.

Mixed momentum signals as price hovers between technical thresholds

The H4 chart shows BTC trading above the MA-20 at $63,631 and below the MA-50 at $64,546, while the daily MA-200 remains much higher at $76,764. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $63,544 serves as immediate support on the daily timeframe. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD continues to indicate strong sell momentum, ADX is neutral, and AO provides no clear trend confirmation. Oscillators are split—RSI at 51.32 and CCI both offer a buy signal, with Stoch RSI remaining in strong buy territory, while BBP is overbought, suggesting dominant intraday buyer activity amid overall indecision.

Consolidation likely as volatility narrows upward breakout odds

For the next 2–3 trading days, the anticipated price range is $60,741 to $66,079, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. Probability currently favors an upward move at 52%, with the down scenario at 48%. The base expectation is for consolidation within this corridor. A bullish break would see price pushing through resistance at the upper bound, while a bearish outcome could develop if support is lost below $60,741.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees current Bitcoin flows as evidence of short-term macro pressure, with institutional sentiment weakened by ETF outflows and geopolitical risk. He notes that technical positioning is mixed, but liquidity withdrawal may limit strong downside from here. The analyst expects Bitcoin to consolidate within the anticipated range, though risks remain tilted by macro factors. "If the risk-off backdrop eases and demand returns, Bitcoin could break higher from the current corridor in the coming days."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin was consolidating as ETF outflows and waning institutional demand weighed on sentiment, creating a cautious market backdrop. With liquidity pressures now compounded by risk-off dynamics and mixed momentum signals, traders should closely monitor for a breakout from the $60,741 to $66,079 range, as directional clarity may emerge on movement beyond these key levels.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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