Bitcoin price prediction by Standard Chartered: From $500,000 to new reality

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Bitcoin price prediction by Standard Chartered

A $500,000 bet

In early 2025, Standard Chartered made one of the most aggressive forecasts on the market: Bitcoin could reach $500,000 before the end of Donald Trump’s presidential term in 2029. The bank did not base this on hype, but on the growing participation of new types of investors — primarily institutional and sovereign entities.

Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick relied on regulatory filings that show how large funds manage their assets. According to him, in Q1 2025, sovereign funds and government-related entities began increasing their indirect exposure to Bitcoin. For example, pension funds in Norway, Switzerland, and South Korea added positions via MicroStrategy shares — equivalent to about 700 BTC each. U.S. state pension funds added another 1,000 BTC equivalent.

Direct ETF investments appeared weaker, but the bank saw this not as a problem, but as an early-stage trend. Kendrick pointed to a structural shift in demand:

“As more investors gain access to the asset and as volatility falls, we believe portfolios will migrate towards their optimal level from an underweight starting position in BTC.”

The core idea was that Bitcoin is gradually becoming a standard part of investment portfolios. Institutions are still underweight, and as confidence grows, they will increase exposure. According to Standard Chartered, this process could ultimately drive Bitcoin to $500,000.

A $200,000 target and a new cycle

By mid-2025, Standard Chartered shifted its focus to nearer-term targets. The bank expected Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high of around $135,000 in Q3 and surpass $200,000 by year-end.

The key shift was abandoning the traditional four-year halving cycle model. Historically, Bitcoin would peak and then enter a correction 12–18 months after a halving. For example, after the July 2016 halving, Bitcoin peaked in late 2017 before declining.

Based on that logic, the April 2024 halving should have led to market weakness by late 2025. However, Standard Chartered argued that this pattern no longer applies. The bank believes the current cycle is fundamentally different, and historical patterns are no longer reliable predictors.

Against this backdrop, analysts expected continued growth without a typical deep correction. The $200,000 forecast for 2025 was seen not as a peak, but as a midpoint in a longer-term upward trend.

A sharp revision of expectations

By the end of 2025, Standard Chartered’s tone changed significantly. The bank cut its 2025 Bitcoin forecast in half — from $200,000 to $100,000. It also lowered projections for the following years: $150,000 for 2026, $225,000 for 2027, and $300,000 for 2028. The $500,000 target was pushed back to around 2030.

The main reason was weaker-than-expected demand from large investors. The bank noted that aggressive buying from treasury companies had largely run its course, while institutional adoption via ETFs was growing more slowly than expected. This directly impacted the main price driver.

The numbers confirm this shift: Bitcoin ETF inflows in Q4 2025 totaled around 50,000 BTC — the lowest since launch. For comparison, in Q4 2024, combined inflows (including corporate purchases) reached 450,000 BTC — nearly nine times higher.

In early 2026, the outlook became even more cautious. Standard Chartered suggested that Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 or lower in the short term. One reason cited was ETF investor behavior: since October, about 100,000 BTC has been withdrawn, while the average entry price was around $90,000. This means many investors are sitting on losses, increasing potential selling pressure.

Macroeconomic conditions added further pressure. The bank pointed to uncertainty in the U.S. economy and a low likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term. As a result, expectations for renewed capital inflows into crypto markets were pushed back.

From optimism to caution

The evolution of Standard Chartered’s forecasts clearly shows how quickly the Bitcoin market is changing. In early 2025, the bank was betting on large-scale institutional inflows and increasing portfolio allocation to BTC, supporting a $500,000 target. By mid-year, the focus shifted to a faster cycle and a $200,000 milestone, but by year-end it became clear that key drivers — particularly demand from funds and corporations — were weaker than expected.

As a result, forecasts had to adjust to a new reality: slower capital inflows, macroeconomic pressure, and changing investor behavior. Importantly, the bank has not abandoned its long-term bullish outlook — it has simply extended the timeline and reduced growth expectations. This makes the current situation more telling: the Bitcoin market is maturing, and even the most optimistic projections now depend on real capital flows, not just expectations.

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