Tesco stock: ongoing buybacks and neutral trend signal modest downside pressure

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Tesco slides 0.01% to GBX 438.95

Highlights

Tesco continued its £1.45 billion share buyback, repurchasing 725,540 shares at 440.99 pence on December 19, 2025, and 755,304 shares at 437.38 pence on December 22, 2025.
The buyback program launched in April 2025 has retired 343,701,336 shares worth £1,415.5 million, reducing Tesco's total shares outstanding to 6,393,140,426.
Senior executives, including the Group CEO, acquired new shares through Tesco’s Share Incentive Plan, demonstrating ongoing management alignment with shareholders.

Share count reduction as buybacks and executive purchases continue

Tesco has continued its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, acquiring 725,540 ordinary shares on December 19, 2025, at an average price of 440.99 pence per share, and 755,304 shares on December 22, 2025, at 437.38 pence per share, with all repurchased shares cancelled. Since the programme's launch in April 2025, a total of 343,701,336 shares worth £1,415.5 million have been bought back, reducing the total shares in issue to 6,393,140,426. Additionally, senior executives including the Group CEO acquired new shares via the company's Share Incentive Plan, reflecting ongoing management alignment.

Mixed momentum as oversold signals clash with trend weakness

Momentum signals are mixed: the daily MACD shows a sell bias and the ADX reads as neutral, hinting at weak trend conviction. Most oscillators (RSI, Stoch RSI, CCI) point toward oversold or negative momentum, and BBP suggests sellers control the session. No significant gap occurred at the open, with the stock near the low of its GBX 437.20 – 441.30 intraday range and daily movement flat, reflecting low volatility and modest pressure after the open. Despite the oversold readings, the absence of directional momentum and conflicting intraday signals highlight uncertainty and sideways movement.

Sideways bias likely as upside momentum remains limited

Looking ahead, the expected price range for TSCO over the next five trading days is GBX 437.00 to GBX 444.00, based on typical near-term volatility. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a sustained price increase, making further downside or sideways action more likely. The baseline scenario is for TSCO to consolidate between support and resistance, while a bullish scenario would require a break above GBX 446.20, and a bearish outcome could see the stock slipping below GBX 437.00.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views Tesco's current setup as technically fragile. He sees persistent downside pressure with the price below key short- and medium-term moving averages, and weak conviction from momentum signals. Ongoing buyback activity supports fundamentals, but sentiment remains cautious. "Unless TSCO decisively reclaims GBX 446.20, I remain defensive and expect more sideways or downward action."

Previously it was reported that Tesco PLC remains under short- and medium-term moving averages with mixed momentum indicators, as seller bias prevails and support is defined near the 200-day MA while resistance rests at the Ichimoku Kijun level. The share price is expected to remain rangebound in the near term, with a moderate probability of upward movement but downside risk if support breaks.

Source of Data: TSCO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.