Tesco stock dips as technical momentum stays bearish despite ongoing buybacks

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Tesco slips 0.07% to GBX 438.00

Highlights

Tesco purchased 755,304 ordinary shares for cancellation on December 22, 2025, at an average price of 437.38 pence per share.
Since launching its £1.45 billion buyback in April 2025, Tesco has repurchased over 343 million shares, reducing total shares in issue to 6,393,140,426.
Following the latest transaction, Tesco holds no shares in treasury, underscoring strong confidence in its financial position.

Share buyback boosts investor confidence as issuance declines further

Tesco continues its £1.45 billion share buyback programme, purchasing 755,304 ordinary shares on December 22, 2025, at an average price of 437.38 pence per share for cancellation. Following this transaction, the total shares in issue declined to 6,393,140,426 and Tesco now holds no shares in treasury. Since the buyback launched in April 2025, the company has repurchased more than 343 million shares, reinforcing confidence in its financial position.

Oversold oscillators signal downside fatigue amid weak daily trend

Momentum signals on Tesco are negative on the daily timeframe, with MACD showing a sell and the ADX indicating a weak trend at 17.90. Oversold signals are present on the Stochastic RSI, CCI, and BBP, while the RSI is subdued at 41.69 and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. The price is down marginally by 0.30 from the previous close, opened higher (no gap), and sits near the lower end of today’s GBX 437.00 – 441.40 range amid low volatility and mild selling pressure. Short-term oscillators indicate oversold conditions even as steady bearish momentum persists.

Bullish reversal potential rises as technicals favor range breakout

In the coming week, Tesco is expected to trade within a volatility band of GBX 437.00 to GBX 445.00. The probability of a price increase is high — above 80% — as supported by weekly moving averages, RSI, ADX, and MACD signaling possible bullish momentum, while a drop remains less probable. The baseline scenario suggests a period of sideways consolidation between identified support (MA-200) and resistance (Ichimoku Kijun). A breakout above GBX 446.20 would open a bullish path, whereas a decisive move below GBX 437.00 could see Tesco retesting the MA-200 near GBX 409.50.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, notes that Tesco’s ongoing share buyback reinforces strong institutional confidence and underlines a solid financial position. He sees current short-term bearish pressure offset by oversold sentiment and robust long-term support near MA-200. Macro and sentiment signals suggest a probable rebound, especially as weekly momentum remains constructive. The analyst expects consolidation, but sees high odds for a bullish continuation if GBX 446.20 is reclaimed. "Given the buyback momentum and oversold signals, I expect Tesco to show resilience, with a strong chance for recovery above key resistance levels in the near term."

Last time, analysts noted that Tesco PLC shares were trading below short- and medium-term moving averages with mixed momentum signals and prevailing seller bias, while remaining above the long-term average. Technical indicators suggest limited upside and a likely period of sideways consolidation, with key resistance near the Ichimoku dynamic level and no immediate support nearby.

Source of Data: TSCO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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