Natural gas price forecast: Gas steadies near $3.1 as LNG disruptions keep market on edge

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Natural gas price forecast

Highlights

Natural gas holds near $3.09 after a run-up that rose closer to $3.45 ended.
India has begun restricting gas supplies as Qatar LNG disruptions hit regional flows.
The $3.06 to $3.15 range now defines the market’s next directional break.

The market isn't in a panic mode anymore, but it hasn't fully returned to normal yet. Traders are now watching to see if the recent drop is just a consolidation after a headline-driven squeeze or the start of a bigger drop as worries about geopolitics ease.

Supply disruption still drives the macro backdrop

The bigger story is still about LNG logistics and the effects of instability in the Middle East. Problems with supplies in the Strait of Hormuz are already affecting real economic activity in Asia. India has begun curbing gas supply to industrial users after Qatar halted LNG production and shipping reliability deteriorated. Fertilizer producers and ceramic manufacturers have also started cutting production, proving the supply shock is spreading well beyond financial markets to the industrial economy.

China’s own response to the wider energy rise has also included lifting regulated retail fuel price caps by the largest amount since 2022. That reaction underscores how closely gas and oil markets are now moving together as importers come to grips with supply stress from war. While prices have retreated from the highs, the underlying supply problem has not been completely erased.

Chart shifts from breakout to consolidation

On the one-hour chart, natural gas has entered a more balanced phase after the surge toward $3.45. Price is now hovering just below the 20 EMA at $3.148 and the 50 EMA at $3.157. That narrow band is acting as immediate resistance and defines the first hurdle bulls must clear to restart upside momentum.

NG price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Support is better established near $3.06, where the 200 EMA is still rising. That level held during the latest pullback and has become the structural floor for the current recovery pattern. A break above $3.15 would likely reopen the path toward $3.3 and possibly the $3.35 to $3.45 zone that capped the previous advance. A failure below $3.06 would expose $3 and then the $2.95 area where the earlier base formed.

Momentum has cooled without turning decisively bearish. RSI near 41 is well below the overbought extremes reached during the earlier rally, but it has also stopped falling sharply. That suggests speculative excess has been flushed out and the market is searching for a more stable near-term range.

As previously discussed, natural gas has remained highly sensitive to LNG route disruptions even when the technical structure weakens. That still applies here. The current pause looks more like a reset inside a volatile supply-driven market than a full return to calm conditions.

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