Aviva shares see a jump — What is fueling the stock rise

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Aviva rises 2.08% today to $638.20

Highlights

Aviva launched a £350 million share buyback and reported a 25% increase in 2025 operating profit to £2.203 billion.
The firm raised its final dividend by 10% and achieved 2026 group targets one year ahead of plan, despite a £10.6 million regulatory fine tied to acquisition accounting issues.
Technicals indicate the share price trades below key moving averages with bearish short- and medium-term momentum; the expected five-day range is GBX 602.95 to GBX 615.80, skewed to further downside.

Buyback activity and regulatory fine shape sentiment despite earnings surge

Aviva has recently initiated a share buyback program of up to £350 million and repurchased 20,000 shares at an average price of 623.37 pence for cancellation as part of this plan. The company reported a 25% rise in operating profit for 2025 to £2.203 billion and increased its final dividend by 10% to 26.2 pence, achieving 2026 group targets one year early. Additionally, Aviva received a £10.6 million fine from the Prudential Regulation Authority for accounting miscalculations relating to the Direct Line acquisition, which also impacted its Solvency II shareholder cover ratio and ongoing integration efforts.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, points out that Aviva's technical picture remains bearish as the price is stuck below all key moving averages. He highlights that the recent share buyback and dividend uplift have failed to shift market sentiment due to persistent negative momentum and unresolved regulatory issues. Kharitonov is critical of the stock's inability to reclaim resistance at GBX 648.20 and sees weak momentum signals from MACD, ADX, and oscillators as further red flags. The recent regulatory fine and integration setbacks reinforce the risk of further downside or stagnation. He says: "Without clear upward catalysts and with momentum indicators flashing warning signs, I see little room for optimism in AV here."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Aviva's latest results as a testament to solid execution with operating profits up and dividend growth outpacing expectations. He notes the buyback reflects management's confidence and the early achievement of 2026 targets underpins a bullish fundamental structure. Karapetjanc emphasizes that integration challenges and the regulatory fine are unlikely to disrupt Aviva's renewed growth trajectory. He states: "Aviva remains well-positioned for further gains, and the market offers multiple setups for the forward-looking investor."

Bearish momentum and weak oscillators amid intraday recovery signals

Momentum readings remain mixed for AV. The price is situated beneath all key moving averages, with the Ichimoku Kijun at GBX 648.20 acting as the nearest dynamic resistance and support forming at GBX 614.50 (HMA). While the MACD and ADX suggest weak or negative daily momentum, the RSI is in a neutral-to-weak zone at 42.66 and oversold signs are visible on Stoch RSI, BBP, and CCI (–85.19). AO supports near-term downside, though intraday buying has led to a close near the session high amid moderate volatility.

Earlier, analysts noted that Aviva plc was experiencing persistent selling pressure and ambiguous technical signals, with mixed momentum indicators creating uncertainty about a potential reversal. The current analysis adds that while downside momentum continues to dominate, any sustained close above the Ichimoku Kijun at GBX 648.20 would represent a notable technical shift and could signal the start of a broader recovery.

Source of Data: AV Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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