Australian Dollar vs US Dollar trades higher as card surcharge ban and volatility shape forex moves

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Australian Dollar gains 0.54% to $0.6886

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of Australia will ban card surcharges and cap bank fees from October 1, shifting costs to financial institutions and saving consumers and businesses up to A$2.5 billion annually.
Further regulatory consultations on removing no-surcharge rules for buy-now-pay-later services are scheduled for 2026, with Middle East geopolitical tensions providing additional market backdrop.
AUD/USD remains under short- and medium-term bearish pressure near $0.6886, with technicals signaling a weak trend and an expected trading range of $0.6780–$0.6920 for the coming week.

RBA fee reforms and Middle East tensions shape AUD sentiment

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced new reforms set for October 1 that will ban card surcharges for debit and credit payments and cap bank fees charged to businesses. These regulatory changes are expected to save Australian consumers and businesses between A$910 million and A$2.5 billion annually, with financial institutions absorbing these costs. The RBA will also require consultations in mid-2026 regarding potential removal of no-surcharge rules for buy-now-pay-later providers, while recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a background factor.

Oversold signals collide with persistent bearish momentum intraday

Momentum indicators for AUD/USD present a mixed outlook: the D1 MACD and ADX both indicate a lack of bullish momentum, with MACD issuing a 'Sell' signal and ADX staying below 25, signaling a weak trend. Oscillators such as RSI and CCI are in oversold territory, and the Stoch RSI shows a strongly oversold reading, which could signal an upcoming technical rebound. D1 BBP reflects continued seller dominance intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator also points to selling pressure. Currently, AUD/USD trades near the upper end of today's $0.6840 – $0.6885 range, with moderate volatility and sustained buying interest post-open, yet a divergence is noted between oversold oscillators and ongoing seller strength.

Sideways bias as oversold conditions temper breakout risk

Over the next five trading days, AUD/USD is expected to remain within a typical volatility band of $0.6780 – $0.6920. The probability for either a rise or decline is moderate at 50%, given that two out of four weekly indicators signal 'Buy'. The baseline scenario anticipates continued sideways movement, as sellers confront oversold technical conditions. A break above $0.7010 could enable further upside, while a move below $0.6840 would open a path toward stronger support near $0.6780.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, views recent RBA reforms as a fundamental positive for the Australian market. He sees underlying support for AUD/USD holding above SMA-200, with technical oversold signals suggesting potential for a rebound. Despite short-term seller pressure, the macro backdrop and regulatory moves point to improved sentiment ahead. "If risk appetite persists and policy changes gain traction, AUD/USD could soon test resistance near $0.7010."

Earlier, analysts noted that the Australian dollar faced persistent short- and medium-term selling pressure, with longer-term support providing a stabilizing backdrop. The introduction of new RBA regulatory reforms and a mixed technical outlook now add fresh catalysts for AUD/USD, with traders advised to monitor potential volatility around upcoming policy and geopolitical developments.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.