Solvency II ratio setback pushes Aviva stock lower

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Aviva falls 1.17% to GBX614.10 today

Highlights

Aviva's 2025 operating profit rose 25% to £2.203 billion alongside an 18% gain in general insurance premiums to £14.1 billion.
The company's total dividend increased 10% to 39.3 pence, while Solvency II ratio dropped to 180% mainly due to the Direct Line acquisition.
Aviva trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum signals, projecting a range of GBX 598–630 and limited probability of near-term upside.

Dividend hike contrasts with persistent selling as Direct Line weighs

Aviva reported a share buyback trade executed on April 1, as disclosed in its April 2 notice. The group scheduled its annual general meeting for May 6, and a first-quarter trading update is planned for May 14, when the 26.2 pence final dividend will also be paid. For 2025, operating profit increased to £2.203 billion from £1.767 billion, general insurance premiums grew by 18% to £14.1 billion, and wealth net inflows rose by 6% to £10.9 billion. Aviva raised its total dividend by 10% to 39.3 pence and confirmed its Solvency II ratio declined from 203% to 180% primarily due to the Direct Line acquisition, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum and indicator divergence drive intraday lows

Momentum signals are weak: the D1 MACD shows a strong sell, and ADX (17.43) suggests an indecisive trend. The D1 RSI (48.67) and CCI (-12.28) both lean neutral to mildly negative, while Stoch RSI is overbought and BBP displays overbought buyer dominance, creating clear divergence between momentum and oscillator signals. The price declined by GBX 7.30 (1.17%) from the previous session, with only a minor gap at the open, and now trades near today's intraday low of GBX 614.60, emphasizing moderate volatility and steady downside pressure after the open — momentum indicators broadly confirm this bearish tone.

Deeper retracement risk as upside probability remains limited

For the coming week, the typical volatility band relative to current levels is set at GBX 598–GBX 630. The probability of a near-term price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further declines the more likely scenario. The baseline outlook sees AV moving sideways within this corridor. A bullish scenario would require a breakout above the GBX 639 area (immediate resistance), which could open a move toward GBX 630 and beyond, whereas sustained trading below GBX 598 would confirm a bearish breakdown and risk deeper retracement in the medium-term downtrend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees recent corporate actions and strong operating growth supporting Aviva’s solid fundamentals, even as technicals point to pressure. He believes that the selling is being driven more by short-term momentum than by changes in the underlying story. While the downside risk persists, macro and sentiment factors such as dividend growth and premium inflows offer longer-term confidence. "If Aviva can break above the GBX 639 resistance, I expect investor optimism to return and price action to improve."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aviva was facing persistent bearish technical pressure, with downside risks seen as more likely in the near term. The latest performance and momentum readings not only reinforce this cautious outlook but also underscore that any meaningful recovery now hinges on a decisive breakout above immediate resistance, making sustained downside below the current volatility band a growing risk for investors to monitor.

Source of Data: AV Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.