Aviva stock price forecast: £623.60–£639.55 range as AV trades flat

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Aviva rises 0.03% to GBX626.80 today

Highlights

Aviva Insurance Ireland saw a 65% spike in property claims and a 24% rise in total general insurance claims paid to €340 million, mainly driven by severe storm losses and persistent cost pressures.
Motor damage payouts increased 23%, pushing overall repair and write-off expenses up 39% since 2023, prompting Aviva to advocate for stronger industry-wide fraud detection collaboration.
AV shares trade below key medium- and long-term technical resistance, with a sideways short-term range of GBX 623.60–639.55 likely and bearish signals dominating near-term outlook.

Rising property claims and cost pressures drive insurance payouts higher

Aviva Insurance Ireland has reported a notable 65% surge in property claims for 2025, with total general insurance claims paid reaching €340 million, a 24% increase from the prior year. The rise is being driven by extensive damage linked to Storm Éowyn and by settlements from Storm Darragh, alongside sustained cost pressures in key claims categories. Motor damage payments were also higher by 23%, contributing to a 39% overall increase in repair and write-off costs since 2023. Aviva is continuing its push for a Central Insurance Industry Fraud Hub to strengthen real-time intelligence sharing among insurers and law enforcement.

Mixed technical momentum as overbought signals meet neutral ADX

The current price of AV at GBX 626.80 sits above the SMA-20 (GBX 620.32), indicating some short-term momentum, but remains below both the SMA-50 (GBX 634.42) and SMA-200 (GBX 652.01), suggesting persistent medium- and long-term resistance from sellers. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at GBX 631.00, which is above the last price and serves as immediate resistance. Momentum signals show conflicting cues: MACD on D1 is in strong sell territory, and ADX reads 15.14 (neutral, signaling lack of a clear directional trend). The RSI is balanced near 50, but Stoch RSI and BBP are both overbought, indicating stretched buying conditions; CCI is neutral. BBP’s positive reading points to buyers dominating intraday momentum, but with caution as oscillators highlight over-extension. There was a negligible gap on the open, and the price is near today’s high in a narrow range (GBX 621.30 — 626.60), which signals low volatility and some residual strength as the session unfolds, though underlying momentum and oscillators warn of possible near-term reversal risk.

Bearish outlook favored as resistance caps upside potential

For the next five trading days, AV is expected to trade between GBX 623.60 and GBX 639.55. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making a decline more likely given the dominant bearish signals on the weekly RSI, ADX, MACD, and MA-50. The baseline scenario is for the stock to stay within a sideways range in the low GBX 620s to GBX 630s. If resistance at GBX 631.00 is decisively surpassed, a bullish extension toward GBX 639.00 is possible, while a break below GBX 623.00 could trigger further weakness toward the recent lows.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees short-term momentum for Aviva but notes the stock still faces key resistance at both the SMA-50 and SMA-200. He believes the sharp jump in insurance claims, driven by storm-related losses, may weigh on sentiment but highlights Aviva's commitment to fraud prevention as a positive structural factor. The low volatility and near-term overbought signals suggest a sideways or mildly weaker move unless resistance at GBX 631.00 is broken. Karapetjanc remains optimistic on the company’s proactive risk controls and underlying resilience. "If Aviva can push above GBX 631.00, I see room for a breakout toward GBX 639.00 in the coming days."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aviva was exhibiting mixed short-term momentum within an overall medium- and long-term bearish trend, with traders advised to monitor for potential shifts in market direction. The latest results and technical data reinforce this cautious outlook, highlighting the importance of watching for a decisive move above GBX 631.00 or below GBX 623.00 as a trigger for the next directional move.

Source of Data: AV Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.