Aviva stock holds steady as 25% operating profit growth reported for 2025

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Aviva up 0.47% to GBX641.30 today

Highlights

Aviva reported a 25% year-on-year operating profit increase for 2025 and began a £350 million share buyback, strengthening shareholder returns.
The Direct Line acquisition boosted general insurance profit contribution, while the group's Solvency II capital ratio stands robust at 180% with a 6.7% forward dividend yield.
Technicals indicate short- and medium-term bullish momentum, yet oscillators warn of overbought conditions and likely price consolidation between GBX 639 and GBX 654.

Profit gains and acquisitions bolster balance sheet amid portfolio expansion

Aviva has appointed Ravi Cheema as a Multi-asset Portfolio Manager, expanding its multi-asset capabilities. The company reported a 25% year-on-year increase in operating profit for 2025 and has launched a £350 million share buyback programme. Aviva's acquisition of Direct Line in July increased the contribution of the general insurance division to group operating profit, and the group maintains a Solvency II capital ratio of 180% as of December, with a forward dividend yield of 6.7% at the current share price.

Bullish bias persists as momentum signals diverge near resistance

AV continues to trade above the SMA-20 and SMA-50, but remains below the SMA-200 at GBX 652.14, reinforcing short- and medium-term bullish momentum. The immediate support is at the Ichimoku Kijun level of GBX 623.40. The MACD on the daily chart signals strong downside momentum, while ADX stays neutral, indicating limited directional conviction. Meanwhile, RSI (55.73, Buy) and CCI (69.26, Buy) reflect a bullish bias, but Stoch RSI and BBP mark overbought and buyer-dominated conditions, suggesting possible near-term exhaustion. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, with price trading near intraday highs amid moderate volatility, hinting at buyer strength within the session. Divergent signals from oscillators and momentum indicators indicate potential for short-term consolidation, despite robust intraday tone and buyers' control.

Limited upside expected as consolidation looms within volatility boundaries

Looking ahead, AV is likely to consolidate within a typical volatility band of GBX 639 to GBX 654 over the coming week. The probability of a price increase remains low (below 20%), favoring a continued or renewed decline. Stability between immediate support and resistance is the baseline scenario. A bullish scenario could unfold if AV breaks above the GBX 652 – 654 range, while a push below GBX 639 would risk a deeper pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Aviva's recent operational milestones as positives, but the technical setup remains mixed. Persistent resistance below the SMA-200 and warning signals from oscillators suggest limited upside. Base case is sideways action between GBX 639 and GBX 654 unless key resistance breaks. "Until AV closes decisively above GBX 654, I remain defensive and see failure at resistance as a risk for new downside tests."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aviva was exhibiting mixed short-term momentum within an overall context of medium- and long-term resistance, urging caution pending a clear directional move. The latest developments—highlighted by robust profit growth and expansion in multi-asset management—strengthen the outlook for AV, making a confirmed breakout above the longer-term resistance zone a key catalyst to monitor for potential sustained upside.

Source of Data: AV Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.