WTI pulls back after rally as traders take profits on de-escalation signals
After a sharp surge earlier in the week, WTI has moved lower and is now trading around $91 per barrel. Investors began taking profits following reports of possible progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as emerging signs of easing tensions in the Middle East.
Over the past 24 hours, prices have declined by about 1%, partially retracing the more than 8% jump recorded the previous day.
Geopolitical premium persists, but market turns more cautious
Despite the pullback, a significant geopolitical premium remains embedded in prices. Risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations continue to support the oil market. However, traders are increasingly reacting not to potential supply disruptions, but to the possibility of gradual normalization, which is limiting further upside potential.
Demand-side pressure returns to focus
As panic-driven sentiment fades, investors are shifting back to fundamental factors. Major analytical houses point to signs of slowing global oil demand, particularly in China and Europe. Weak consumption dynamics remain the key argument for lower prices following the spring energy shock. Several forecasts suggest a gradual increase in supply in the second half of the year, which also caps the potential for sustained price growth.
Short-term outlook
Technically, the market remains in a corrective phase after the sharp rally. As long as WTI holds above the psychological $90 level, geopolitical risks continue to provide support. However, if further positive signals emerge regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations, prices may test the $88–86 range.
A renewed rally would likely require either a fresh escalation of the conflict or clear signs of a real reduction in global oil supply, as noted in WTI rebounds after correction, but downside risks remain. For now, the short-term balance has shifted from fears of shortage to expectations of gradual de-escalation, which explains the current price decline.
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