Evercore ISI sees SpaceX IPO lifting S&P 500 in next bull market leg

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SpaceX IPO and S&P 500 rally

Highlights

Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel predicts a SpaceX IPO could help drive the S&P 500 to 9,000 in a bull-case scenario, over 20% above last week's close of 7,431.46.
Emanuel highlights a potential 'Dream Big FOMO' effect from landmark IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, but cautions that blockbuster listings sometimes signal late-cycle markets.
Current IPO issuance is only 0.5% of S&P 500 market cap—well below levels seen in 1999, 2007, and 2021—and $7.9 trillion in money market funds could fuel further equity gains.

SpaceX debut and market targets

As reported by CNBC, Evercore ISI equity strategist Julian Emanuel says SpaceX's IPO is set to start the next leg of the bull market and could push the S&P 500 to 9,000 in his bull-case scenario. That implies a gain of more than 20% from last week's close of 7,431.46, while his base case of 7,750 suggests a rise of about 4% from current levels.

Emanuel compares the early excitement around SpaceX with the 1995 Netscape IPO, which helped fuel optimism around the internet before the bubble peaked in 2000. He says SpaceX, together with expected debuts from Anthropic and OpenAI, could mark a broader psychological turning point for equities.

He says strong early demand for landmark IPOs can trigger what he describes as a "Dream Big FOMO" effect that supports further gains in stocks. At the same time, he acknowledges concern that blockbuster listings can also coincide with a market top as a cycle matures.

Liquidity and issuance levels support optimism

Emanuel says the lack of meaningful recession signals and elevated but contained yields indicate that any market peak may still be some time away. He also points to a record $7.9 trillion in money market funds as a source of sidelined cash that could move into equities if investors decide to participate after initially waiting on the SpaceX offering.

He argues that current IPO activity remains restrained relative to past market peaks despite the attention around large artificial intelligence and technology listings. Equity issuance is projected at 0.5% of S&P 500 market capitalization, below the 0.75% seen in 1999, 0.91% in 2007, and 0.88% in 2021.

In his view, that combination of lower relative deal volume and substantial cash reserves suggests comparisons with past IPO frenzies may be overstated. He says the cycle's peak could therefore be further away than some investors fear.

In our earlier article on SpaceX’s post-IPO momentum, we covered how the stock extended its record debut surge and why traders were closely monitoring key technical levels such as the anchored VWAP and the $175.50 threshold tied to potential insider selling. We also noted that SpaceX’s early price action was being treated as a broader read-through for risk appetite and sentiment toward major benchmarks including the S&P 500.

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