Silver price prediction: XAG/USD faces downside risk as EMA crossover limits upside rebound

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24.11.2025

Silver price prediction: XAG/USD faces downside risk as EMA crossover limits upside rebound — Silver trades flat near $50

Silver [XAG/USD] traded sideways today, Monday, November 24, between $49.70 and $50.70, reflecting low volatility and indecision across the Asian and European sessions. This price stagnation mirrors the 1-hour RSI, which has hovered around the 50 level, indicating a lack of short-term directional bias.

- Silver trades flat near $50 as EMA death cross pattern caps short-term rebound strength.

- Clustered EMAs between $50.2 and $50.55 reinforced resistance throughout Monday’s sessions.

- RSI at 46 and bearish crossover confirm weak price momentum and downside continuation risk.

The current pause follows a sharp pullback that ended last week, where silver recorded two consecutive bearish days that dragged its price to a nine-day low of $48.70. That decline was triggered by the U.S. dollar index climbing to its highest level since late May. At the same time, positive risk sentiment in equities weighed on demand for safe-haven metals like silver.

Silver price dynamics (Oct - Nov 2025). Source: Tradingview

Recovery attempts late last week were supported by dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, who described monetary policy as modestly restrictive and hinted that the central bank may ease rates soon. Markets quickly began pricing in a 67% chance of a December rate cut, prompting silver to rebound from $48.70 to $50.65 on Friday. However, the bounce lost strength once price met the 50 EMA resistance on the 4-hour chart and closed just around the $50 psychological level.

Silver RSI near 46 shows bearish momentum holding below key EMA levels

A technical concern for silver traders is the bearish crossover seen on the 4-hour chart, where the 20 EMA has slipped below the 50 EMA. This death cross pattern typically points to a weakening trend and potential downside continuation. Further supporting this view is the RSI on the 4-hour timeframe, which sits at 46 and shows bearish momentum has not yet faded.

The 100 EMA at $50.20, the 20 EMA at $50.30, and the 50 EMA at $50.55 all pose barriers to a sustained upside move. Unless silver breaks through this cascade of resistance, the probability of retesting last week’s low at $48.70 increases. Failure to hold above that level would wipe out November’s month-to-date gains and tilt performance into negative territory. Traders watching the next sessions will be looking for a clear breakout or breakdown to confirm whether silver continues its downtrend of lower lows.

We discussed how silver dropped to $50.75 after dollar strength erased its midweek recovery gains. Fed minutes lowered December rate-cut odds from 60% to 30%, triggering a selloff in the metal.

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