XRP price prediction: $2 support holds as selling pressure fades

Highlights

XRP holds below $2 as spot outflows slow and aggressive selling pressure eases.
Derivatives positioning shows hesitation rather than conviction, keeping price range-bound.
Technical structure favors consolidation unless XRP reclaims short-term moving averages.

Spot flow data provides the clearest early signal of this transition. For much of the year, XRP was marked by persistent net outflows, with repeated red bars confirming steady distribution rather than panic-driven exits. The brief exception came during the July rally, when price surged above $3 and inflows spiked sharply. That move failed to sustain, and outflows quickly resumed as price rolled over.

In recent sessions, however, those outflows have thinned meaningfully. The latest readings show marginally positive netflow, not enough to confirm accumulation, but sufficient to suggest that sellers are stepping back rather than pressing the market lower. Momentum remains weak, but the character of the move has changed, and that distinction is shaping near-term expectations.

Derivatives positioning reflects hesitation, not capitulation

Derivative data reinforces this cooling dynamic. Open interest remains elevated near $3.7B, even as XRP trades far below its yearly highs. This indicates that leverage has not fully exited the system, but it has rotated. The 24-hour long-to-short ratio sits near parity, pointing to indecision rather than strong directional conviction. At the same time, top trader account data remains skewed toward longs across major venues, particularly Binance. This split explains current price behavior. Bulls are positioned but cautious, while sellers continue to fade rallies instead of chasing breakdowns.

Liquidation data supports the view that the market is no longer under stress. Long liquidations have exceeded shorts over the past day, but the absolute size is modest compared with earlier in the quarter. This is not a forced deleveraging environment. Instead, XRP is drifting lower under its own weight, a pattern commonly seen in late-stage corrections that transition into consolidation rather than collapse.

Charts show stabilization, but resistance remains intact

On the daily chart, XRP remains below all major moving averages. The 20-day EMA near $2.08 and the 50-day EMA around $2.21 continue to slope lower, capping recovery attempts. Above them, the 100-day EMA near $2.38 and the 200-day EMA around $2.45 define the upper boundary of the medium-term bearish structure. As long as price remains below the 20-day EMA, any bounce should be treated as corrective rather than trend-changing.

XRP price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Momentum indicators tell a consistent story. The daily RSI is holding in the low 40s, well off oversold territory but far from signaling strength. During October’s sharp breakdown, RSI briefly dipped toward exhaustion before stabilizing. The current behavior suggests that sellers no longer have urgency, but buyers are still waiting for confirmation before committing capital.

Short-term price action highlights fragile stabilization

On the 30-minute chart, XRP has reclaimed short-term Supertrend support near $1.97, helping price stabilize after a brief flush below $1.96. However, upside attempts continue to stall in the $2.02–$2.04 area, where intraday resistance and prior breakdown levels converge. This narrow range reflects indecision rather than accumulation, with liquidity thinning on both sides.

Structurally, the $1.95–$2 zone is now the most important level to watch. A sustained break below this area would expose XRP to a deeper retracement toward the $1.8 region, where historical demand sits on the daily chart. On the upside, a clean reclaim of $2.08 would be the first signal that XRP is attempting to transition from stabilization into a relief rally, potentially opening a path toward $2.2.

Previously, we noted that XRP tends to stabilize through a slowdown in spot outflows and cooling liquidations before any meaningful improvement in price structure develops. That pattern appears to be repeating. The market has moved past panic, but conviction has not returned.

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