Avalanche price prediction: Can $2B asset inflow spark recovery? AVAX falls 8.61%

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Avalanche slides 8.61% today to $8.60

Highlights

Colony, an accelerator in the Avalanche ecosystem, will cease operations by March 31, 2025, signaling reduced institutional support for early-stage projects.
Progmat, backed by major Japanese institutions, is migrating to Avalanche, with over $2 billion in real-world assets expected to transfer to the network.
AVAX trades at $8.60, below key moving averages, with technicals indicating strong seller pressure and a projected range of $7.75–$9.45 over the next five days.

Reduced institutional support offsets new alliances as price underperforms

Colony, an accelerator within the Avalanche ecosystem, announced it will cease operations by March 31, 2025, marking a reduction in institutional support for early-stage projects. Progmat, a Japanese tokenized securities platform backed by several institutions, entered into an alliance with Ava Labs and will pivot to the Avalanche blockchain. Avalanche also confirmed that more than $2 billion in real-world assets is expected to move to its network, and it was reported as a leading project for real-world asset development activity, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum dominates as key resistance caps limited buyer response

The technical picture shows AVAX trading below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with the Ichimoku Kijun level at $8.95 serving as nearest resistance. Momentum signals are mostly bearish: MACD is a strong sell, ADX is high at 40.98, and RSI is 43.62. Stochastic RSI is at 66.77 but remains classified as strong sell, CCI trends near neutral but leans oversold on short timeframes, and Bull/Bear Power is positive at 0.43, signaling modest buyer activity. Most oscillators and momentum indicators align with the intraday decline and sustained downward action.

Further AVAX losses likely as reversal chances remain subdued

In the short term, AVAX is expected to move within a volatility band of $7.75–$9.45 over the next five sessions, with the current price near the lower end. The probability of a reversal to the upside is very low (less than 20%), making further weakness more likely. A consolidation between $7.75 and $9.45 is the base scenario; a bullish move would require a break above the $8.95 resistance, while a fall below $7.75 could expose more downside in line with persistent seller control.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees near-term technicals as weak for Avalanche (AVAX). However, he remains positive on the ecosystem given strong institutional alliances and ongoing real-world asset flows. The base scenario is a consolidation around $7.75–$9.45, with better prospects if AVAX reclaims $8.95. Karapetjanc believes recent partnerships and asset migration signal robust long-term value, despite price pressure. "I see meaningful upside potential for AVAX if broader sentiment and real-world adoption trends continue to strengthen."

Previously it was reported that Avalanche is showing short-term bullish momentum as it trades above the 20-day moving average, though medium- and long-term indicators remain bearish with the price below key higher moving averages and the Ichimoku Kijun acting as resistance. Despite increased network adoption and near-term buying signals, mixed momentum indicators and weekly timeframes suggest limited further upside, with downside risk prevailing unless AVAX breaks above immediate resistance.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.