Institutional ETF inflows fail to halt selling

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Polkadot drops 7.06% to $1.434 today

Highlights

21Shares debuted the first spot Polkadot ETF (TDOT) on NASDAQ, offering direct DOT exposure with a 0.30% fee.
Institutional investors committed $544,480 at launch, but DOT's price stayed under broad selling pressure despite increased futures open interest.
DOT trades below major support levels, with technical indicators broadly bearish and next week's price likely confined to a $1.36–$1.61 range.

ETF debut and institutional inflows fail to lift price under selling pressure

On March 6, 2026, 21Shares launched the first spot Polkadot ETF, TDOT, on NASDAQ, offering physical backing and direct exposure to the DOT token. TDOT charges a 0.30% management fee and does not grant governance rights to ETF holders. Early institutional inflows were recorded, with an initial net entry of $544,480, and Polkadot's futures open interest rose to $256.76 million before stabilizing near $207.60 million by the following Friday, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Technical indicator divergence as high volatility fuels short-term uncertainty

Momentum readings show mixed signals: D1 MACD points to a strong buy, while ADX is neutral, suggesting indecisive trend strength. Oscillators indicate oversold or negative momentum, with D1 RSI at 47.5 (sell), Stoch RSI at 4.7 (oversold), and CCI near neutral. BBP on D1 suggests buyers may be trying to stabilize the decline, despite seller dominance on shorter timeframes. The daily change is sharply negative, with DOT down 7.06% since the previous session. No significant gap occurred at the open, but price now trades near the day’s low in a narrow range, indicating high intraday volatility and ongoing pressure after the open. Divergences between the strong buy MACD and the broadly bearish tone of the other indicators highlight uncertainty in short-term direction.

Limited upside potential as bearish bias dominates expected trading range

Over the next five trading days, the expected range for DOT is $1.360 to $1.610, based on typical volatility and current levels. The probability of price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely. Baseline scenario: DOT holds in a sideways corridor between $1.36 and $1.61. Bullish scenario: a break above immediate resistance ($1.489/Kijun) could open room toward the high end of the band, while a bearish scenario would see continued selling pressure potentially pushing DOT below $1.36, with little support evident until lower levels. Indicators on both daily and weekly timeframes skew bearish, so recovery attempts are likely to face strong headwinds.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees structural weakness in Polkadot, with price held below every major moving average and sellers dictating all timeframes. However, he notes the launch of the 21Shares TDOT ETF as a fundamentally positive sign for long-term institutional adoption, despite current selling pressure and weak short-term sentiment. He observes mixed momentum with ongoing volatility, but underlying flows and ETF interest could stabilize the price in coming weeks. Karapetjanc remains moderately optimistic, believing recent developments provide solid ground for eventual recovery. "Although DOT faces headwinds now, I view the ETF launch and growing institutional footprint as seeds for a future trend reversal — patient investors could be rewarded once market sentiment shifts."

Earlier, analysts noted that Polkadot was experiencing persistent bearish momentum with technical signals and sentiment both pointing to ongoing seller dominance. With the latest data confirming continued headwinds across multiple timeframes, traders should monitor the $1.36 support level as a potential trigger for renewed downside if selling persists.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.