Polkadot falls 5.74% with RSI signaling ongoing weakness

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Polkadot slips 5.74% over the week

Highlights

Polkadot trades well below major moving averages, signaling sustained bearish momentum and technical weakness across all timeframes.
Momentum indicators collectively show persistent downside pressure, with sellers dominating and no significant signs of reversal emerging.
DOT is expected to consolidate between $1.30 and $1.60 in the coming week, with downside risk outweighing rebound potential.

ETF debut and protocol upgrade drive mixed sentiment for DOT this week

21Shares launched the first spot Polkadot ETF in the United States, trading on Nasdaq under the ticker TDOT with $11 million in seed capital. The ETF is physically backed, offering U.S. investors regulated exposure to DOT through standard brokerage accounts. Additionally, Polkadot will implement a major economic upgrade on March 12, introducing a capped supply, reducing emissions, and changing staking features.

Persistent bearish signals as DOT remains below key weekly averages

Weekly technical analysis for DOT continues to highlight pronounced bearish momentum, with the price staying well beneath all key weekly moving averages (MA-20, MA-50, MA-200). Support is observed at $1.30 and resistance at $1.60 on the W1 chart, while oscillators such as the RSI (32.97) and CCI (–85.22) reflect ongoing weakness that is not yet technically oversold. The MACD and ADX both signal persistent downside, and sellers remain in control according to Bull/Bear Power. Volatility for the week measured 12.02%, and all indicators collectively point to a lack of bullish conviction.

Limited upside expected as technicals point to ongoing consolidation

In the next 5–7 trading days, DOT is expected to consolidate within a range of $1.30 to $1.60, reflecting persistent negative momentum on the weekly chart. The probability of a significant upside move remains low, with technicals offering little indication of a reversal. A bullish turn would require a breakout above $1.60, but a close below $1.30 could open further downside, as all key weekly momentum indicators remain bearish and show no signs of improvement.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Polkadot (DOT) firmly under pressure on the weekly timeframe. The launch of the 21Shares spot Polkadot ETF in the U.S. and the upcoming economic upgrade brought little relief, as persistent bearish signals dominated technicals this week. DOT remains deeply below its main moving averages, with sellers controlling momentum and key oscillators showing sustained weakness that is not yet oversold. Volatility of 12.02% and a narrow range between $1.30 and $1.60 point to consolidation rather than recovery. The analyst believes the probability of a decisive upside move is very low while further declines cannot be ruled out. "As long as DOT trades below $1.60, I remain skeptical of any bullish scenario for the coming week."

Previously it was reported that Polkadot is exhibiting short-term bullish momentum above its near-term moving averages, supported by strong intraday buyer activity, but remains constrained by medium- and long-term resistance levels as broader trends stay bearish. Oscillator signals are mixed with overbought readings and neutral momentum, suggesting limited upside potential and a higher likelihood of consolidation or downside within the current price corridor.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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