Polkadot: Scheduled halving and ETF hopes drive price up 7.26% despite longer-term weakness

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Polkadot jumps 7.26% to $1.60 today

Highlights

Polkadot announced a halving event for March 14, 2026, which will cut annual DOT issuance by over 50% and shift toward deflation.
Rising institutional attention, with speculation about Polkadot ETF filings by Grayscale and 21Shares, is driving heightened trading volume and market activity.
DOT is trading at $1.596, above MA-20 ($1.381) and Ichimoku Kijun ($1.426), but faces resistance at MA-50 ($1.644) and overall bearish weekly trends.

Halving event speculation and ETF interest fuel trading surge

Polkadot is seeing heightened activity following the announcement of a scheduled halving event set for March 14, 2026, which will reduce the annual issuance of new DOT tokens by over 50% and move the token toward a deflationary supply model. Additional momentum has come from growing institutional interest, as market speculation mounts regarding potential Polkadot ETF filings by firms such as Grayscale and 21Shares. Increased trading volume and sustained attention have further contributed to the current uptick in market activity.

Mixed oscillator signals as intraday volatility highlights buyer strength

Momentum signals are mixed: the MACD is neutral but the ADX shows strong trend strength while RSI remains supportive at 59.85, indicating underlying buying interest. However, both the Stochastic RSI (94.57) and CCI (164.65) suggest overbought conditions, pointing to potential near-term exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power shows clear buyer dominance intraday, which aligns with the Awesome Oscillator’s strong buy signal. There was a clear gap up at the open, with the current price sitting mid-range between today’s high ($1.681) and low ($1.584), reflecting high intraday volatility and underlying strength toward session highs, though this is partially at odds with several oscillators flashing caution.

Downside risk prevails as upside odds remain low

For the next five trading days, the typical volatility band for DOT is expected between $1.40 and $1.75, with the current price at $1.596. The probability of further upside is very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely as weekly indicators and moving averages on the W1 timeframe remain strongly in sell mode. The base scenario is further consolidation within this projected corridor, while a bullish scenario would require a decisive close above $1.75. Renewed downside risk is confirmed if DOT breaks below the $1.40 area.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees short-term bullish momentum in Polkadot, but warns that the broader trend remains bearish. He notes recent news has boosted sentiment and activity, but most technical and weekly signals point to continued downside risk. Kharitonov remains cautious, advocating for defensive positioning in light of mixed momentum and persistent resistance levels. "As long as DOT trades below $1.75 and major moving averages, I see limited upside — the risk of renewed decline prevails."

Previously it was reported that Polkadot is trading above its short-term moving average and just below the medium-term average, reflecting short- and medium-term bullish momentum while remaining capped by long-term resistance. Despite positive weekly sentiment supported by halving anticipation and ETF speculation, overbought conditions, a neutral MACD, and key resistance near $1.75 suggest a range-bound outlook with limited upside for the coming week.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.