XRP price prediction: Sellers reject breakout as $2.37 resistance crushes another rally

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Highlights

- XRP slips toward $2.19 after another rejection at its descending trendline.

- Spot flows remain negative, signaling weak accumulation even as price stabilizes.

- Derivatives traders increase long exposure, creating a tense divergence with spot markets.

The market remains trapped inside a broad compression pattern formed since May, with price drifting between a rising structural support near $1.83 and a falling supply wall that has capped every push higher.

The current setup reflects a market still undecided. Buyers are defending the multi-month trendline that has guided the broader structure since early summer, yet each attempt to lift XRP above its resistance layers has stalled under the same descending trendline. With December approaching, traders now face a critical period where weakening spot participation clashes directly with growing derivatives activity.

Trendline rejection keeps pressure on XRP

The daily chart shows a clean rejection at the downtrend that began from the $3.80 swing high. XRP attempted to climb into the underside of the 20-day EMA at $2.20, but the 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $2.37 and $2.51 remain stacked above price, forming a wide supply zone that has absorbed every bounce since August. Parabolic SAR has stayed bearish throughout November, and recent candles show hesitation under the trendline, suggesting sellers continue to dominate momentum.

XRP price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

A failure to reclaim the $2.37 level on a closing basis leaves XRP vulnerable to further downside. The next support sits at $2.00, followed by the structural floor at $1.83, a region that has held every major decline this year. Losing that level would mark a significant breakdown and risk a deeper retracement toward earlier consolidation areas.

Spot flows weaken as derivatives optimism builds

Spot flows continue to show persistent selling pressure. The latest reading from Coinglass recorded a -$274.81K outflow while XRP traded near $2.19, adding to a multi-week stretch of negative prints. Over the past three months, the market has logged far more outflow days than inflow days, indicating that traders are still sending tokens back to exchanges rather than accumulating through the downturn.

This contrasts sharply with derivatives behavior. Open interest climbed 1.96% to $4.11B, while options open interest surged 21.95%, signaling that traders are positioning more aggressively despite weak spot sentiment. Long-short ratios hover near 1.00 on a 24-hour basis, but Binance accounts show a strong long bias, with ratios between 2.64 and 2.99. Short-side liquidations over the past day totaled $2.13M, hinting that sellers are beginning to feel pressure during intraday moves.

This divergence creates a tense dynamic. Rising open interest suggests optimism among leveraged traders, but without a shift in spot flows, XRP remains dependent on derivatives-driven moves that can unwind quickly if price weakens.

Compression continues ahead of major breakout test

XRP is nearing the apex of its year-long symmetrical triangle, bringing the market closer to a decisive breakout or breakdown. The upside path requires a firm move above $2.37, followed by a test of $2.52 where the long-term EMAs converge. A clean break above the descending trendline would target $2.90 and then $3.20, the next major resistance zones.

On the downside, failure to hold $2.20 increases the risk of a drop back toward $2.00. A break below that level exposes the long-term support at $1.83, the line that has defined the structure since May. Losing $1.83 would invalidate the compression pattern and trigger a deeper structural unwind.

For now, the broader picture remains neutral with a slight bearish tilt. Spot demand continues to weaken, momentum indicators remain mixed, and derivatives activity is rising against a backdrop of declining accumulation.

In earlier discussions, we noted that XRP’s structure was entering a compression phase, where the descending trendline and long-term support near $1.83 would decide the next major leg. The latest rejection at resistance and continued spot outflows align with that view, keeping XRP in a tight range as the triangle approaches its breaking point.

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