Costco stock price forecast: sideways consolidation likely as COST falls below key moving averages

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Costco slips 0.75% to $882.66 today

Highlights

Costco reported an 8.5% year-over-year net sales increase in December 2025, reaching $29.86 billion and underscoring robust corporate growth.
The company expanded to 13 countries and operates e-commerce sites in eight markets, signaling ongoing international and digital growth initiatives.
Costco marked 22 consecutive years of dividend payments, with its most recent dividend increasing by 12.07%.

Sales growth and dividends lift sentiment amid global expansion

In December 2025, Costco reported an 8.5% year-over-year increase in net sales, reaching $29.86 billion and highlighting ongoing corporate growth. The company continues its international expansion, now operating in 13 countries and maintaining e-commerce sites in eight markets. Costco has also marked 22 consecutive years of dividend payments, with its most recent dividend increasing by 12.07%.

Mixed momentum as price straddles short-term supports and resistance

The technical outlook for COST is mixed: price action sits above the MA-20 but below the MA-50 and well under the MA-200, indicating some short-term buying interest contrasted with medium- and long-term bearish bias. The Ichimoku Kijun at $885.19 serves as the closest dynamic support, while the MA-50 at $894.86 acts as significant resistance. Momentum indicators show a weak profile as the daily MACD signals a strong sell and the ADX reveals low directional strength, while oscillators diverge — Stochastic RSI and CCI are overbought, the RSI is neutral to slightly bullish, and Bull/Bear Power remains in positive territory. The Awesome Oscillator does not confirm a clear trend, indicating uncertainty in near-term direction.

Bearish risk prevails as COST faces narrow trading range

For the next five sessions, COST is likely to trade within a $850 to $885 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a price increase is below 20%, making further declines more likely. Primary expectations are for sideways movement between support near $850 and resistance at $885. A breakout above the $885–$895 zone could trigger bullish momentum, but a move below $850 would reinforce the bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees short-term technical support for Costco above the MA-20, but the overall outlook stays bearish with price below both the MA-50 and MA-200. He remains cautious, noting weak momentum signals and a low probability of any meaningful upside. Base case is sideways action within the $850 to $885 range unless resistance breaks. "Until COST can hold above $885, I stay defensive and expect further weakness."

Previously it was reported that Costco shares trade above their short-term moving average but remain below key medium- and long-term levels, as mixed technical signals—bullish short-term momentum, a bearish daily MACD, and overbought oscillators—point to underlying volatility. Support is indicated near the $869–$885 zone, while resistance persists at $895, with prices expected to consolidate in this range and downside risks prevailing in the near term.

Source of Data: COST Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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