Aviva shares sees a dip — What is pressuring the stock

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Aviva slides 2.16% today to $653.00

Highlights

Aviva delivered a 25% rise in operating profit to £2.2 billion in 2025, driven by Direct Line acquisition and strong business growth.
The company launched a £350 million share buyback and increased its total annual dividend by 10% to 39.3p per share.
AV shares show short- and long-term bullish momentum, with near-term resistance and high volatility amid a projected range of GBX 677.00 to GBX 677.05 over the next week.

Profit surge and buyback boost sentiment despite selling pressure

Aviva reported a 25% year-on-year increase in operating profit to £2.2 billion for 2025, attributed to the acquisition of Direct Line and growth in its insurance and wealth businesses. The company declared a final dividend of 26.2p per share, bringing the total dividend for the year to 39.3p, a 10% increase, and announced the launch of a £350 million share buyback programme. Strong capital generation, cash remittances of £2,077 million, and achievement of 2026 financial targets ahead of schedule were also disclosed, alongside improved IFRS return on equity, now at 17.5% from 15.7%, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees clear warning signs despite Aviva’s strong recent financials. He notes that sellers remain dominant, as shown by the price closing near intraday lows and a daily drop of 2.16%. Technical momentum above moving averages looks fragile, while medium-term resistance stands firm. He highlights that the overbought signals and weak trend strength suggest limits to further upside. "Recent results are impressive on paper, but with sellers in control and oscillators looking stretched, I’m cautious about chasing GBX 653.00 higher at these levels."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes Aviva is positioned for further growth. He highlights the 25% increase in operating profit and the early achievement of 2026 financial targets as a sign of operational strength. Karapetjanc sees the increased final dividend and share buyback as proof of management’s commitment to rewarding shareholders. In his view, the bullish structure remains intact, with potential for a breakout above MA-50. "With capital generation improving and strategic execution ahead of schedule, Aviva looks set for a strong performance in the near term."

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees mixed sentiment dominating Aviva’s short-term setup. While macro news and robust capital actions support underlying confidence, today’s sharp dip shows that intraday volatility may unsettle trend followers. Technical indicators suggest both support and resistance are active, leaving the path forward unclear. Turakhiya believes traders should watch for a decisive break in either direction. "If GBX 652 holds, bulls may have another shot — but I’d wait for clarity before committing to a new position."

Momentum mixed as intraday volatility contradicts technical signals

The current price of AV (GBX 653.00) is above both the MA-20 (GBX 647.53) and the MA-200 (GBX 651.10), but just below the MA-50 (GBX 658.64). This configuration suggests short- and long-term bullish momentum is still in place, but medium-term traders may see some resistance, with Ichimoku indicating dynamic support near GBX 652 and resistance at the MA-50 level. Momentum indicators are giving a mixed picture: MACD remains positive and signals buying interest, but the weak ADX points to limited trend strength. RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI are all near neutral to moderately bullish, showing neither overbought nor oversold extremes. However, BBP flags an overbought environment, highlighting intraday dominance by sellers. The Awesome Oscillator aligns with the underlying bullish structure. Today, the price fell 2.16% with no significant opening gap and now trades near the lowest point of the session, reflecting high volatility and clear pressure after the open. This intraday drop contradicts the generally positive but indecisive signals from most momentum oscillators.

Previously it was reported that Aviva plc is trading just above its 20-day and 200-day moving averages—offering near-term technical support—while remaining below its 50-day average, signaling a mixed short- to medium-term outlook. Momentum signals are divided, with bullish indications from MACD but overbought conditions reflected in RSI and oscillators, suggesting potential downside risk if selling pressure intensifies despite immediate support levels.

Source of Data: AV Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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