Selling pressure pushes Aviva stock lower in today's trading

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Aviva slides 2.90% today to $610.20

Highlights

Aviva posted £2.2 billion in operating profit and raised its final dividend by 10%, signaling robust earnings momentum.
A new £350 million share buyback and commitment to an 8.2% future capital return yield reflect enhanced shareholder distributions.
Despite oversold technical conditions, the share price remains under persistent selling pressure, with downside risk to GBX 590.35 and a low probability of near-term recovery.

Capital returns and AI investments offset by continued share pressure

Aviva reported an operating profit of £2.2 billion for its most recent full year and raised its final dividend by 10%. The company also launched a new £350 million share buyback programme and forecasts a combined dividend and buyback capital return yield of 8.2% for future years. Investments in artificial intelligence and continued commitment to its Direct Line for Business commercial insurance segment were announced, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees sustained technical weakness in Aviva plc as the price lingers below all major moving averages. He notes persistent selling pressure despite the company's efforts to boost dividends and initiate a share buyback, signaling limited investor enthusiasm. Critical momentum signals like ADX and multiple oscillators further point to a lack of conviction for a turnaround. Kharitonov highlights that the bullish MACD remains an outlier against the board's otherwise bearish sentiment. "Until Aviva recaptures key resistance levels, any upward move looks highly doubtful in the current technical context," he states.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, maintains a constructive view on Aviva's fundamentals. He points to the significant increase in operating profit, enhanced dividend, and robust capital return program as strong positives for long-term investors. The analyst believes the market undervalues the company's push into artificial intelligence and resilient business insurance momentum. Karapetjanc emphasizes that these drivers set up Aviva for future capital returns, cushioning current downside. "The bullish structure remains intact, and I expect the market to recognize this in the weeks ahead," he affirms.

Technical uncertainty as bullish MACD diverges from oversold readings

The closest dynamic resistance on the daily Ichimoku chart is near the Kijun line at GBX 652.17, while immediate support is not indicated by Ichimoku, leaving price vulnerable around current lows. Momentum signals are mixed: the daily MACD shows strong upward bias while ADX registers weak market strength, indicating trend direction is unclear. Multiple oscillators (RSI, Stoch RSI, CCI) confirm oversold conditions, alongside a BBP reading that signals sellers dominate intraday action. The immediate tone reflects pressure after the open, with downside momentum dominating. Notably, the bullish MACD diverges from broader bearish and oversold signals, emphasizing uncertainty about a technical reversal in the short term.

Last time, analysts noted that Aviva plc shares have come under persistent selling pressure, trading below their 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, despite a strong rise in operating profit, a dividend increase, and a new share buyback announcement. With the price facing dynamic resistance near the Ichimoku Kijun level and lacking immediate nearby support, technical momentum remains negative across all timeframes.

Source of Data: AV Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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