Aviva stock price forecast: Seller momentum likely to persist as AV slides toward $615

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Aviva drops 4.29% to $620.60 today

Highlights

Aviva executed a £4 million pension buyout for the Hille Ergonom scheme, securing benefits and allocating surplus assets for 74 members.
The company advanced its generative AI initiatives by expanding AI-powered underwriting for individual critical illness, amid ongoing investor knowledge gaps and insider share purchases.
Aviva trades below key moving averages with weak momentum and high volatility, with price likely to remain in the £615.00–£635.00 range and a low probability of near-term gains.

Broader selling pressure persists despite insider buying and AI initiatives

An insider transaction took place on March 16, as Aviva's Pippa Lambert acquired 229 shares at an average cost of GBX 634 per share. The Hille Ergonom Pension Scheme completed a £4 million buyout with Aviva to secure benefits for 74 members, with surplus assets allocated. Aviva also expanded its AI-powered underwriting summarisation tool to support individual critical illness applications within its generative AI initiatives, and recent company research highlighted knowledge gaps among UK investors, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Diverging indicators as resistance holds and volatility intensifies intraday

The current price of Aviva ($620.60) remains below the SMA-20 ($647.82), SMA-50 ($648.61), and SMA-200 ($652.09), indicating short-, medium-, and long-term pressure from sellers. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $648.20 and now acts as immediate resistance. Momentum readings are weak as the D1 MACD signals a strong sell and ADX remains soft at 13.05, pointing to a lack of directional strength. D1 RSI sits in neutral territory (51.89) but flashes a buy, while Stoch RSI and CCI are mostly neutral or oversold across intraday timeframes. BBP on D1 has moved to overbought territory but turns oversold on shorter horizons, highlighting sharp swings and increasing seller dominance intraday. The AO is neutral and does not confirm the downtrend. The price opened today at $639.06 after a small gap below the previous close ($648.40) and is currently trading near the session low ($617.17–$640.80). Today’s drop of 4.29% signals high volatility, with persistent pressure since the open and a decisively negative intraday tone. Notably, there are divergences among oscillators and momentum indicators, as the D1 RSI remains buoyant despite overall downward momentum.

Limited rebound odds as mixed signals reinforce downside risk

Looking ahead, the expected price range for the next 5 trading days is $615.00–$635.00. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further declines the more likely scenario for now. The baseline assumption is for the price to move sideways within this volatility band relative to current levels, as daily and weekly indicators display mixed signals. A bullish scenario would require a break above $648.20 (Ichimoku resistance), while a bearish move below $615.00 could open the way for further losses, with weekly moving averages still indicating underlying support below $620.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Aviva's persistent sell-off, combined with weak momentum and resistance above $648.20, points to a defensive setup. He sees recent insider activity and business developments having little near-term impact as technical pressure dominates price action. Kharitonov remains skeptical about a near-term rebound and emphasizes downside risk below $615.00. "Unless we see a decisive break above resistance, the path of least resistance stays lower for Aviva."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aviva was experiencing persistent bearish momentum and weak technical signals, with downside pressure dominating across multiple timeframes. The latest action reinforces this outlook as heightened volatility and deepening intraday losses keep the focus squarely on risks below $615.00, making further downside a distinct possibility in the near term.

Source of Data: AV Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.