Tesco stock price forecast: GBX 475.00–GBX 492.00 range as TSCO falls 2.27%

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Tesco drops 2.27% today to GBX482.85

Highlights

Tesco reported robust fiscal results with group sales up 4.6% to £66.6 billion and adjusted operating profit hitting £3.15 billion.
Shareholder returns were strong with £2.4 billion distributed via dividends and buybacks, and next year's profit guidance was raised despite geopolitical risks.
TSCO trades with a bullish technical structure and is expected to range between GBX 475.00–492.00, but current overbought signals warn of short-term volatility.

Profit growth and shareholder returns drive positive outlook amid risk

Tesco reported preliminary results for the 2025/26 fiscal year, with group sales excluding VAT and fuel increasing by 4.6% to £66.6 billion and adjusted operating profit reaching £3.15 billion. Profit after tax rose nearly 10% to £1.79 billion, and free cash flow was up 12% year-on-year to £1.96 billion. The company completed a £1.45 billion share buyback and proposed a final dividend of 9.7 pence per share, bringing the full-year total to 14.5 pence and returning £2.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Tesco also raised its operating profit guidance for next year but noted that ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly the conflict in the Middle East and rising food costs, present uncertainty for future profits, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Short-term selloff contrasts with bullish technical momentum

TSCO trades well above its key moving averages, confirming a bullish structure on short, medium, and long-term trends. The Ichimoku Kijun at GBX 473.20 offers immediate support. MACD signals buy momentum while the daily ADX suggests a weak, neutral trend, contrasted by a stronger bullish read on the weekly. RSI (59.55) and CCI (94.37) are in bullish territory, but Stoch RSI and BBP indicate overbought conditions, reflecting buyer dominance but highlighting elevated short-term sentiment. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral, and today's session features a steep decline after a flat open, with price near session lows, showing intraday selling pressure against a positive medium-term technical structure.

Sideways bias expected as upside probability outweighs downside risk

For the coming week, TSCO is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of GBX 475.00–492.00. The probability of an upward move is estimated above 80%, making a short-term decline less likely. The base case is sideways movement between support at GBX 475.00 and resistance at GBX 492.00. A push above GBX 492.00 could trigger a further bullish extension, while a move below GBX 475.00 may shift sentiment more bearish before stabilizing.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Tesco maintaining a bullish technical posture above key averages, yet he remains cautious due to persistent selling pressure and overbought short-term signals. He notes strong fundamental results and shareholder returns, but highlights that ongoing geopolitical risks and rising costs cloud profit outlook. Kharitonov believes that price will likely consolidate within the GBX 475.00–492.00 range unless support or resistance is decisively broken. "Base case is neutral: I avoid new positions unless GBX 492.00 breaks or GBX 475.00 fails — caution remains warranted here."

Earlier, analysts noted that Tesco maintained a broadly bullish technical outlook despite short-term volatility. The latest results and strong technical structure reinforce this bias, but with overbought signals persisting and underlying selling pressure in the current session, investors should closely watch for any sustained break below GBX 475.00 as a potential shift in near-term sentiment.

Source of Data: TSCO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.