Reform UK faces new risks in battle for Britain's right

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Reform UK right-wing risks

Highlights

Reform UK underperformed in the Makerfield by-election, following similar results in Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton, as tactical voting by left-leaning voters blocked its advance.
In Aberdeen South, the Conservatives secured their largest modern-era by-election vote increase, signaling intensified competition for right-leaning voters and pressure on Reform's positioning.
Restore Britain took 7 per cent in Makerfield, highlighting fragmentation on the right and creating a strategic dilemma for Nigel Farage between appealing to anti-establishment voters and maintaining broad centre-right support.

By-election results test Reform's momentum

As reported by Financial Times, last week's by-elections raise fresh questions about whether Reform can convert strong polling and local election gains into broader electoral success. In Makerfield, the party underperformed despite favorable demographics, including strong past Brexit support, high concern about immigration and a local electorate that had backed Reform heavily in May's local elections.

The result is the third by-election in a row, after Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton, in which Reform's prospects fade as left-leaning voters turn out in force to block the party. That pattern points to a tactical voting problem for Nigel Farage, especially if voters see the Conservatives as a less polarising rightwing option against Labour.

Aberdeen South adds to that pressure from another direction. The Conservatives recorded their largest by-election vote increase in the modern era there, indicating that Reform is not the only credible party competing for right-leaning voters in the UK.

Fragmentation on the right widens the challenge

Financial Times says Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is also showing signs of renewed traction, with improving personal ratings and a visible role in the Aberdeen South campaign. While oil and gas dominate local voter concerns, her campaign appearances appear to help reinforce the party's appeal.

Reform is also facing pressure from Restore Britain, which took 7 per cent in Makerfield. The party appears to be drawing both voters who want a harder-line alternative on deportations and identity issues, and those who view Reform as too close to the political establishment.

That creates a strategic dilemma for Farage. Reform has been trying to win over voters unhappy with the status quo but cautious about extremism, yet any effort to recapture support from Restore risks pushing the party further right and weakening its broader centre-right appeal.

The Henry Nowak case illustrates that tension. Although many right-leaning voters agree with Farage's criticism of two-tier policing, his call for "pure cold rage" appears to alienate some voters who might otherwise be receptive to Reform's message.

Even so, the article does not present this as a clear decline for Reform. The party still leads in polling and has turned that support into strong local election results, but the contest for leadership of the British right now appears more open than it recently did.

In our earlier report on the Makerfield by-election, we covered how Andy Burnham’s win intensified internal pressure on Keir Starmer and revived speculation about a potential Labour leadership challenge. We also noted that Reform’s defeat in the same contest raised fresh doubts about whether Nigel Farage can turn attention and polling into by-election victories and broader national traction.

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