S&P 500 stabilizes near 6,734 while traders prepare for heavy macro week

Highlights

- S&P 500 ends the week near 6,734, stabilizing above its rising channel support.

- Traders await delayed U.S. macro data and major corporate earnings, including Nvidia.

- A close above 6,800 may revive upside momentum, while a drop below 6,600 risks deeper weakness.

Technical structure remains intact despite volatility

S&P 500 index continues to trade inside its ascending channel that has guided price since April. Last week’s decline briefly tested the lower boundary near 6,600, but buyers defended it cleanly, reinforcing the channel’s importance as a structural support zone. Price now sits just above the 20-day EMA at 6,773 and the 50-day EMA at 6,687. Both moving averages retain a steady upward slope, showing that the primary trend remains constructive.

S&P 500 price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The next major cushion sits at the 100-day EMA at 6,519, which overlaps with the lower channel band. The 200-day EMA near 6,266 has not been approached in months, underscoring the strength of the multi-month uptrend. As long as the index holds above 6,600, most technical signals point toward consolidation rather than reversal.

Momentum has eased meaningfully. The RSI sits at 47 after cooling from prior overbought conditions. This neutral reading suggests the market has room to respond to upcoming catalysts without being constrained by stretched positioning. However, the absence of bullish divergence indicates that last week’s rebound remains tactical, not yet a trend-defining shift.

Macro catalysts return as U.S. data backlog clears

The delayed U.S. economic releases caused by the government shutdown now return to the spotlight. The September jobs report—still awaiting rescheduling—is expected to be the defining macro driver this week. Investors are watching how the data will influence the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut debate.

Rate expectations have shifted sharply. Odds of a December cut have fallen from nearly 90 percent a month ago to below 50 percent today. This repricing has cooled enthusiasm around high-valuation growth names and contributed to the hesitation seen across the S&P 500 last week.

Corporate earnings now add a second layer of influence. Nvidia reports on Wednesday in what is likely the most important single earnings event of the month. Major names including Home Depot, Target, Walmart, Palo Alto Networks and Intuit will follow. Investor focus remains on whether AI-linked revenue growth is strong enough to justify premium valuations across the sector. Any miss from Nvidia could pull the S&P 500 back toward 6,600, while strong beats may reignite risk appetite and restore the index’s upward trajectory.

A balanced setup ahead of a critical week

For now, the S&P 500 holds a balanced posture. The trend is intact, support levels remain respected and the index is no longer overextended. A close above 6,800 would signal renewed bullish control and open the path toward the channel top near 7,000. A sustained break below 6,600, however, would mark a meaningful shift and expose 6,520 as the next downside target.

The next directional push will likely arrive from the combination of delayed U.S. data and mid-week earnings. But as the technical picture stands, the index remains resilient despite the recalibration in expectations around the Fed’s policy path.

In earlier coverage, we highlighted how repeated tests of the lower channel band have consistently attracted buyers since April. This dynamic remains in play and continues to define the S&P 500’s ability to stabilize during periods of macro uncertainty.

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