Uniswap drops 13.09% as oversold conditions and volatility persist

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Uniswap slides 13.09% today to $3.23

Highlights

Bitwise has filed an S-1 with the SEC for a proposed Uniswap (UNI) spot ETF, seeking regulatory approval for public market access.
The SEC recently ended its investigation into Uniswap Labs, signaling a potentially more favorable U.S. regulatory landscape for decentralized finance offerings.
UNI trades at $3.227, well below its MA-20 ($4.5057), with immediate support at $2.845 and resistance at $4.56, as technical momentum remains strongly bearish.

ETF proposal and SEC closure fuel optimism for UNI market access

Bitwise has submitted an S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval for an ETF focused on Uniswap (UNI). The proposed ETF, if approved, would provide spot-market exposure to UNI, with Coinbase Custody Trust Company managing custody of the tokens and Bitwise acting as sponsor and manager. This follows the SEC's recent move to drop its investigation into Uniswap Labs, highlighting growing regulatory developments around decentralized finance products.

Bearish momentum intensifies as oversold indicators and volatility align

Momentum readings remain bearish with MACD and ADX both signaling persistent sell-side pressure. The daily RSI sits deep in oversold territory (19.55), complemented by strongly oversold signals from the Stochastic RSI and Commodity Channel Index. Bull/Bear Power confirms strong seller dominance intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator supports the downside trend. The session opened with a notable gap down from the previous close ($3.713) to the open ($3.168), and the price is holding near the upper end of today's range, but volatility has been high. The intraday tone reflects heavy pressure after the open, aligning with momentum and oscillator signals, with no clear divergences present.

Low upside probability as rangebound action favors continued decline

For the coming five days, UNI is expected to fluctuate between $2.95 and $3.30, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a meaningful price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further decline more likely. Baseline expectations are for the price to stabilize in a narrow sideways channel near current levels. A bullish scenario would require a decisive move above $3.30 and then $4.56 resistance, while further downside could see UNI fall below $2.95 and test new lows.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees a persistently bearish technical picture for Uniswap (UNI), with strong downside momentum and all major averages acting as resistance. He notes that even recent news around the Bitwise ETF filing and easing regulatory pressure have failed to improve sentiment or alter the trend. The base case is for UNI to hold near current lows, with little likelihood of a meaningful recovery unless resistance at $3.30 is broken. "With bearish signals dominant and regulatory news providing no catalyst, I see no case for a bullish reversal until key resistance levels are reclaimed."

Last time, analysts noted that Uniswap (UNI) is trading well below all key moving averages, with multiple technical indicators—including MACD, ADX, and a deeply oversold RSI—confirming strong ongoing bearish momentum and entrenched selling pressure. Resistance persists near the Ichimoku Kijun and major averages, with no meaningful bullish signals present and elevated volatility underscoring current downside risks.

Source of Data: UNI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.