XRP price prediction: Buyers defend key support ay $2.45 ahead of inflation data

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XRP holds near $2.45

Highlights

- XRP trades around $2.45, holding just above fragile $2.35 support.

- Exchange outflows of $22.74 million signal weak buying conviction.

- Break above $2.60 could flip momentum; loss of $2.35 risks slide to $2.10.

Despite intermittent bounces, repeated failures near the $2.70–$2.80 region have kept sentiment fragile as volatility compresses.

Technical setup shows structural compression

The daily chart captures XRP’s ongoing battle with momentum and structure. The token is hovering just above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2.61, while shorter-term EMAs at $2.52 and $2.69 act as immediate resistance. Unless buyers reclaim these averages, the risk remains skewed toward a downside resolution.

XRP price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

RSI currently sits near 43, indicating subdued momentum but hinting at possible recovery potential if bulls step in at the $2.35 zone. However, multiple upper wicks on recent candles show that sellers are still defending the $2.70 region aggressively. A clear daily close above $2.60 would confirm a technical breakout, paving the way toward $2.75–$2.85 as compression unwinds. Conversely, a breach below $2.35 could accelerate declines toward $2.10 or even $2.00, marking a potential structural breakdown.

Flows and macro backdrop dictate near-term tone

On-chain data highlights waning trader confidence. Coinglass recorded $22.74 million in net outflows from exchanges on Thursday, extending a multi-week trend of liquidity withdrawal. These persistent outflows suggest that traders remain cautious, reducing the likelihood of a near-term breakout without renewed inflows.

Macroeconomic factors could now set the stage for the next major move. Markets await the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) release, expected to show inflation rising slightly above 3% year-on-year. A softer reading could relieve pressure on the Federal Reserve, weaken the U.S. dollar, and support risk assets like cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, stronger inflation data would bolster the dollar and Treasury yields, dampening appetite for digital assets and heightening the risk of another leg lower for XRP.

Correlation trends also matter. A rebound in Bitcoin and U.S. equities could lift sentiment across altcoins, helping XRP regain footing. But absent that macro support, the technical squeeze may resolve downward given the lack of trading volume and consistent supply pressure above $2.70.

Outlook: Bulls under pressure to hold $2.35 floor

As previously discussed, XRP stands at a crucial inflection point where technical and macro forces converge. The $2.35 level represents the final line of defense for buyers before structural damage sets in. Holding this line could stabilize price action and spark renewed accumulation, particularly if inflation data aligns with market expectations and risk appetite improves.

If bulls reclaim $2.60 in the coming sessions, the path toward $2.75–$2.85 reopens. But failure to defend $2.35 could deepen the correction into the $2.10–$2.00 zone, undermining confidence heading into year-end. For now, the market remains finely balanced, with inflation data likely to decide whether XRP stabilizes or unravels further.

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