Silver price prediction: Can $65.00 support hold as XAG drops 5.02%?

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Silver drops 5.02% today to $68.39

Highlights

Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz has caused the largest-ever oil and LNG supply disruption, intensifying inflation risks and boosting safe-haven demand for silver.
Geopolitical tensions, depleted COMEX silver inventories, and Federal Reserve policy are compounding systemic pressures and liquidity strains in the global silver market.
Silver currently trades below key short-term averages with bearish momentum, but technical signals suggest a likely rebound toward the $72.00 resistance area this week.

Safe-haven demand surges on Strait of Hormuz disruption and tight silver supplies

Disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has triggered the largest recorded oil and liquefied natural gas supply interruption, escalating inflation risk and driving safe-haven demand for silver. On Wednesday, conflict between the US, Iran, and Israel prompted additional US troop deployments to the Middle East while Iran reinforced control over the Strait, maintaining a chokehold on a vital global energy corridor. Volatility in precious metals intensified as investors reacted to prospects of a US-Iran diplomatic resolution, with market liquidity strained by depletion of COMEX silver inventories and delivery pressures across international vaults. The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish policy hold and a strengthening US dollar have amplified systemic pressures in the global silver market amid ongoing geopolitical risk.

Bearish momentum prevails as oversold conditions and gap down persist

Momentum signals on the D1 timeframe indicate a bearish setup, with MACD and ADX both aligned to the downside. RSI, CCI, and Stoch RSI point to lingering oversold conditions, while BBP reveals clear seller dominance at "Oversold" levels. Awesome Oscillator is neutral and does not reinforce the current trend. The price opened with a sizable gap down from the previous close and remains stuck near the lower end of today’s range, showing low intraday volatility and continued pressure after the open. Oscillators generally confirm the negative momentum, though a few signals appear neutral, indicating limited divergence.

Bullish scenario favored amid strong weekly signals and tight consolidation

For the coming week, the expected trading range for Silver is adjusted to $65.00 — $72.00. The probability of an upward move is very high (more than 80%), while a decline remains less likely given the cluster of strong bullish signals on the weekly indicators, including MA-50, RSI, ADX, and MACD. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways consolidation close to current levels. A bullish outcome could see a break above immediate resistance toward the upper band of the volatility band relative to current levels, while renewed selling may prompt a retest of the $65.00 region before firmer long-term support is found.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent downside momentum in Silver (XAG) despite growing geopolitical risk and safe-haven flows. He notes that while long-term support remains near $65.00, most short- to mid-term signals stay negative and rallies face tough resistance at $72.00 and above. Kharitonov maintains a cautious stance and does not expect a lasting rebound unless technical levels are reclaimed. "Until Silver can break above the $72.00 area convincingly, I remain defensive and prepared for more volatility."

Earlier, analysts noted that Silver was experiencing sustained short- and medium-term bearish momentum, tempered by longer-term technical support. The current analysis reinforces this view with heightened geopolitical risk and supply disruptions amplifying both volatility and the potential for sharp upward moves, making the $72.00 resistance an essential level for traders to monitor in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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