S&P 500 steadies near 6,603 as Fed cut bets rise and triangle breakout approaches

Highlights

- S&P 500 holds near $6,603 as futures climb.

- Fed cut odds rise toward 70 percent after dovish signals.

- Triangle compression sets stage for an imminent breakout.

The S&P 500 is pushing against the upper edge of a symmetrical triangle forming through November, a structure reflecting declining volatility and a measured tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Last week’s drop toward 6,520 brought the index directly onto the rising trendline that has guided the rally since April. The clean rebound from that level, despite the loss of the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, signals that institutional buyers remain committed to defending the broader trend.

S&P 500 price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Short-term moving averages now define the near-term test. The 20-day EMA near 6,709 and the 50-day EMA near 6,674 form the ceiling that the index must clear to confirm upside resolution. Beneath price, the 100-day EMA at 6,528 aligns with the rising trendline and marks the level that triggered last week’s bounce. The deeper structural floor sits at the 200-day EMA near 6,283, the threshold that has defined trend stability throughout the year.

Fed tone and Nvidia headlines provide fresh macro support

Macro conditions have turned more supportive for equities. Traders now assign nearly a 70 percent probability to a December Federal Reserve rate cut after New York Fed President John Williams said policymakers see room for “further adjustment,” noting that labor-market softness now outweighs inflation concerns. The shift has pushed yields lower, lifting equity multiples and renewing appetite for growth-heavy sectors.

Nvidia has also returned to the center of market narrative. Reports that U.S. officials may consider limited approval for H200 AI chip exports to China have added a fresh layer of optimism for the semiconductor industry. With CEO Jensen Huang lobbying aggressively for a compromise, traders are betting that even partial regulatory relief could preserve a vital revenue stream. The development has supported tech futures and added momentum to the broader risk tone heading into the final week of November.

Still, the S&P 500 has not confirmed a breakout. The index must close above $6,710 to clear near-term supply. That would open a path toward $6,780 and pave the way for another attempt at the 7,000 psychological level, which capped the rally earlier this month.

What comes next: breakout or renewed pullback?

If the index fails at the current resistance cluster, price may rotate back toward 6,550 and retest the rising trendline near 6,520. A confirmed break below 6,520 would shift sentiment rapidly, exposing the 6,380 area and raising the likelihood of the first medium-term consolidation in months. Such a move would likely require either a soft macro print or renewed geopolitical strain.

For now, the S&P 500 sits at the intersection of technical compression and improving macro conditions. Rate-cut expectations and favorable tech headlines are providing lift, but the pattern remains unresolved. Traders will watch for a daily close above 6,710 to confirm that buyers have regained firm control.

In our earlier analysis, we noted that the S&P 500’s resilience depended on buyers defending the April trendline and reclaiming short-term EMAs. The rebound from 6,520 has validated the trendline once again, but the index now faces the same EMA cluster that previously capped upside momentum. Until 6,710 breaks, the broader structure remains neutral.

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