Technical bearish signals keep Silver under pressure despite brief bounce

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Silver gains 0.93% to $67.76 today

Highlights

Silver prices remain rangebound as investors await clearer macroeconomic signals, with movements primarily driven by US dollar and yield shifts.
UBS maintains a constructive medium-term view on silver, citing real asset resilience despite ongoing macro-driven price swings.
Technicals indicate sustained downside pressure with strong bearish momentum, forecasting a likely trading range between $65.00 and $72.00 in the near term.

Rangebound outlook holds as macro drivers eclipse bullish sentiment

Recent movements in Silver have been mostly shaped by shifts in the US dollar and changes in yields, with ongoing central bank rate decisions and geopolitical events continuing to affect the broader commodity landscape. While the asset has seen price swings following these macroeconomic factors, market participants have maintained a rangebound outlook as they await more decisive signals. UBS has maintained a positive medium-term stance citing real asset strength, but Silver's response has remained closely tied to evolving macro drivers.

Persistent bearish momentum as key resistance curtails buyer attempts

Technical analysis reveals that XAG remains under clear bearish pressure, with the price trading well below its key short- and medium-term moving averages. The SMA-200 at $65.94 offers longer-term support, while resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $79.35. Bearish signals are confirmed by the MACD and ADX, pointing to persistent selling momentum and a strong trend, as RSI sits at 35.16 and CCI at –82.10, placing the asset close to oversold territory. Although Stoch RSI indicates some intraday buying interest at mid-range values, BBP reflects dominant seller activity and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, with high volatility prevailing and a lack of momentum confirmation from intraday indicators.

Sideways bias expected as resistance limits upside and risk of decline prevails

Over the next five sessions, XAG is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band of $65.00 to $72.00 relative to current levels. The probability of a sustained price increase remains low (less than 20%), making further declines the more likely scenario. The baseline outlook envisions sideways trading above longer-term support, unless a clear breakout emerges. Upside potential would only be triggered by a decisive move above the $70.31 – $72.00 resistance, while a drop below $66.87 could intensify pressure toward $65.00.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Senior Analyst at Traders Union, sees silver’s current weakness as a product of dominant macroeconomic forces, especially the US dollar and global yield shifts. He believes that, although selling pressure remains strong for now, longer-term real asset strength and supportive institutional outlooks could help undergird the metal above $65.00. The analyst expects rangebound price action to persist unless a clear macro catalyst emerges to trigger a breakout. "A decisive push above $72.00 could shift sentiment quickly, so I remain attentive to any signs of renewed momentum."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver faced persistent bearish momentum amid elevated geopolitical risks and liquidity concerns, reinforcing the importance of long-term support levels. The current rebound within a volatile environment underscores the continued dominance of downside risks, making further declines likely if the metal fails to hold above its longer-term support.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.