Silver price prediction: $74.50 resistance in focus as XAG trades up

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Silver up 0.90% today to $67.74

Highlights

Qatar's declaration of force majeure on LNG contracts to key Asian and European buyers intensifies global supply security risks across commodities markets.
Persistent Middle East conflict disrupts critical shipping lanes, driving up geopolitical premiums in both energy and precious metals markets amid rising inflation.
Silver remains under short- and medium-term bearish pressure, with prices likely oscillating between $61.00 and $74.50 as technical signals indicate dominance by sellers.

Supply security reevaluation as Middle East conflict disrupts trade

Qatar has declared force majeure on long-term LNG contracts to Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China for up to five years, triggering a systemic reevaluation of supply security in global trade and magnifying concerns about physical silver deliverability under conditions of war or scarcity. Prolonged conflict in the Middle East has extended instability in critical maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting supply chains and elevating geopolitical risk premiums across energy and metal markets. Elevated crude prices and persistent inflationary pressures have intensified scrutiny of alternative supply routes and raised liquidity risks in the silver market as trust in paper contracts deteriorates and ETF redemptions accelerate.

Decisive bearish momentum as most signals indicate oversold market

Momentum signals are mostly negative on the daily frame, with both MACD and ADX forecasting “Sell,” pointing to a decisive bearish bias. RSI (35.16), CCI (–82.10), and BBP (–2.66, “Oversold”) reflect oversold conditions, suggesting sellers remain dominant intraday. Stoch RSI’s “Buy” signal diverges from other oscillators, but the overall tone remains weak. Today saw a modest gap up at the open, with price running mid-range after a $0.60 gain (0.90%). Intraday volatility has been moderate, with price failing to challenge today’s high, indicating continued pressure after the open despite the minor uptick.

Further downside risk as most indicators remain bearish

For the coming week, a typical volatility band is adjusted to $61.00 – $74.50, keeping within 10% either side of the current level. The probability of a further rise is very low (less than 20%) given only one major weekly indicator — ADX — signals “Buy,” while others remain bearish; further downside is more likely. Baseline scenario: price oscillates sideways between established support and resistance. Bullish scenario: a break above $74.50 opens the way for recovery, especially if momentum turns. Bearish scenario: a drop below $65.00 could trigger additional downside, retesting lower supports.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the technical and macro picture for silver as decisively bearish. He notes the metal is weighed down by both negative momentum and heightened supply chain risks following Qatar’s force majeure declarations. With oversold readings but limited signs of reversal, he remains defensive. "Until silver reclaims $74.50 with conviction, I see little reason to chase upside — risk stays to the downside."

Earlier, analysts noted that while silver faced persistent short- and medium-term bearish momentum, technical support and heightened geopolitical risks were increasing the potential for significant volatility. The latest developments extend this narrative, as severe supply disruptions and additional downside pressure highlight liquidity risks and reinforce the need for traders to monitor the stability of long-term support levels in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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